The National Intelligence Council (NIC) of the US Intelligence Community have reached the same conclusion as Johan Galtung, the Grandfather of peace studies who in 1980 correctly predicted the fall of the Soviet Union within ten years. Namely that US dominance will end within a couple of decades. (In the wake of the Wall Street meltdown this prediction probably doesn’t seem far fetched.)

NIC’s Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (opens pdf) paints a bleak picture of the future but with a few glimpses of hope. But scarcity, they argue, will be the hallmark of the new world.

Everybody, including NIC, now seem to agree that USA squandered its unipolar moment. Even though US may still be the largest economic and military power in 2025, its leadership ambitions will increasingly be met with distrust as will the Western liberal democratic model in general. The global political economic order will be completely reconfigured. US power will be balanced by the rise of the BRIC (Brasil, Russia, India, China)

“China, particularly, offers an alternative model for political development in addition to demonstrating a different economic pathway.” (NIC 2008, p. 34)

EU, will be strong but troubled by internal bickering. Much of Latin America and Africa will be early losers. Ongoing troubles will make it harder for the global community to focus on long-term risks. Nations and global governance institutions like the UN are ill fitted to meet global challanges of resource depletion, climate change, terrorism, resource conflicts and imploding states. The geopolitical rivalries will increase. Multilateralism, concerted efforts and empowerment of women are however our best chances.

“We could have a better world in 2025.” ( Thomas Fingar, chairman of NIC)

NIC’s bet on 2025 economic ranking

1 US
2 China
3 Europe
4 India
5 Japan
6 Russia
7 Brazil

Video “Global Trends 2025”

The National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (pdf)

Johan Galtung On the Coming Decline and Fall of the US Empire



New York Times





Peace and Freedom II

The Cynical Optimist


This blog on the role of USA in the 21st century world order